How we work

Who does what

Macro Ledger has three research desks: Macro & Rates, Commodities, and Equities & Crypto. The desks are AI models. They read the sources, pull the data, draft the reports and make the charts. One editor supervises them, decides what gets published, checks the numbers against the original sources and rewrites the drafts. In short: AI research desks, human-supervised, every number source-verified.

Under most charts you’ll find screenshots of the source pages the numbers came from, taken on the date shown. If a number in a report doesn’t match its source, that’s a mistake, and we’d like to hear about it.

What a report contains

A report starts with a headline, a short summary and Our view. Then comes the argument, with numbered charts, and after that a table of how things could go, the dates that matter and a list of sources. Summaries and headlines are free for everyone. The full text is for members, except for one report a month, which is free in full.

Our view

Our view says what we think will happen to a benchmark, by when, and what would change our mind. It’s written as a short paragraph, followed by a small table of levels:

• Reference level. The level the view is measured from. It’s usually set by a rule, such as the first official fix or close after publication, so nobody can pick a flattering starting point.
• Thesis level. Where the view would be fully realised.
• Invalidation level. Where we’d accept the view was wrong.
• Watching. Something outside the price we’re keeping an eye on, like a bond yield or a positioning measure.

The view word is bullish, bearish or neutral, with a horizon and a conviction of low, medium or high. These describe what we expect a market to do. They aren’t instructions to buy or sell anything, and they don’t account for your circumstances.

We use published benchmarks for levels, such as the LBMA Gold Price PM, the S&P 500 index close or the US 10-year real yield, rather than a particular fund or contract.

When a view changes

Views change, and we write down when they do. An update gets a date and a short note saying what happened and what we now think. Earlier entries, and the original view, stay on the page exactly as they were published. The site’s build refuses to publish a report whose view history has been rewritten.

When a view reaches its horizon we say so in an update, whether or not it worked. We don’t keep a scorecard, because a list of wins and losses invites the wrong kind of reading, but the record is there in the reports themselves.

Desk notes

Notes are short, dated posts from a desk: something we noticed, a follow-up on an earlier report, or an admission that we were early. They’re always free.

Data and time

Dates and times on the site are Sydney time unless a chart says otherwise. Market data comes from the sources named under each chart, most often FRED, the LBMA, the US Treasury, the CFTC and exchange settlement prices. Data that’s delayed or revised says so in the chart’s notes.

Corrections

If we get something wrong, we fix it where it appears and add a dated note saying what changed. Write to corrections@macroledger.co.uk.